Africa is clearly a land of extreme poverty. The continent
epitomises destitution, its images commonly used
by media and charity organisations to depict human
want and suffering. But precisely,
how poor are
African countries?
One of the most commonly used indicator for expressing the wealth
or poverty of nations is Gross National Product
(GNP), which is the sum of the value of a nation's
output of goods and services. This is calculated
by adding up the amount of money spent on a country's final output
of goods and services or by totalling the income
of all its citizens, including the income from
factors of production used abroad. The measure of
progress, or lack of it, is indicated by GNP growth rates, i.e., the percentage change in GNP over a period of time, usually a
year. The average income of a country's citizens
is contained in the GNP per capita, which is the
GNP divided by the population.
Structural adjustment programmes of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) are predicated on the
assumption that progress can be measured in terms
of movements in the GNP or the Gross Domestic
Product (GDP), which is similar to GNP but does not include income from abroad. Governments everywhere judge their
performance by changes in economic growth rates,
congratulating themselves when they achieve or
surpass their GDP growth targets.
Using these indices as currently calculated by governments and international organisations African nations are many decades
behind developed nations. In 1996, the average of
GNP per capita in the industrialised world was
$27,086, compared with $528 in Africa. This means
that industrialised countries are roughly 51 times wealthier than
African nations. At an annual growth rate of three
percent it would take Africa about 120 years to
reach today's level of wealth of the West. Of course, western nations are unlikely to stand still in the
21st century, so, it seems that African
societies striving to catch up with the west have
an impossible mission.
How relevant are GNP and GDP data to economic development? Do improvements in GDP growth rates necessarily reflect greater
prosperity for the general population? Should
African governments give weight to economic growth
as presently constructed? These are questions that all who are concerned with development in Africa should seriously
ponder.
In recent decades some people have challenged the importance of economic growth, the foundation of classical and orthodox
economics, with its roots in the late eighteenth
century and early nineteenth century. Some writers
questioned the validity of the system for accounting the size of economies and asked whether the benefits of growth are
wisely distributed.
With respect to developing countries, particularly in Africa, there
are a number of flaws in the prevailing method of
measuring the size and growth of economies.
Firstly the system reflects the general preoccupation of orthodox economics with monetary transactions. The
obsession is for what is bought and sold for
money, as distinct from the actual output of a
community. It means that in developing nations, where a large
proportion of economic activity takes place
outside the market, GDP figures tend to be
understated. Modern conventions of national accounts do not
adequately recognise economic activities in the
household and community that do not involve the
exchange of money.
In developed economies virtually every activity has been
commercialised. For instance, the national
accounts of any western nation include payments
for personal beauty care, which for the US is around $60 billion a
year. Such an item would hardly feature in the
accounts of African nations. However, this does
not mean that African men and women living in villages do not enjoy 'beauty' treatments - it's simply that such
activities are not commercialised. In 1996 people
in Britain spent some $33 billion on beer, wine
and spirits, larger than the GDP of most African countries. But the consumption of palm wine, local spirits and other
indigenous alcoholic brews in African villages is
not valued and incorporated in national
accounts.
In Western capitalist societies, where everything is priced,
virtually all aspects of culture is monetized and
incorporated in the national accounts. For
instance, the total annual expenditure on marriages and funerals in the US runs into several billions of dollars a
year. Yet, people marry in African societies in
elaborate and joyful ceremonies and the dead are
buried with appropriate ritual, but little of these activities get into the national accounts. Leisure and
entertainment sectors account for a large
proportion of the GDP of western nations, but in
the GDP of poor countries these universal components of life hardly figure.
GDP statistics of African nations and other non-western societies
do not adequately reflect their cultural output,
whilst cultural output forms a significant
proportion of the GDP of western nations.
Another reason why prevailing accounting conventions underestimate
the national income of developing countries is
that a very large proportion of economic activity
in these places takes place outside the recorded sector. The so-called informal sector is responsible for most economic
activity in African nations but does not appear in
the national income sheet because its transactions
are unrecorded. The sector, ranging from illegal black market activities, to tax evaders and small-scale producers
using simple technology, is essentially defined as
economic activity that is unmeasured, unrecorded
and, in varying degrees, illegal.
No one knows the size of this sector, also called the black economy
or the second economy. Some economists have
estimated that it may be as much as two or three
times the size of the official GDP. With the rise in corruption and the alienation of the indigenous business
community from the state, the size of the informal
sector has grown. It does not comprise only of
small producers, but includes businesses with large turnovers which to avoid paying taxes or escape stifling state
bureaucracies, operate outside the formal recorded
economy. With the virtual collapse of the formal
sector, tied to external economy, during the past two decades, many producers in the sector have crashed and others have
moved into the informal sector.
If African policymakers do not know the actual size and dynamics
of their nation's real economy, i.e., the
combination of the formal and informal, they
cannot properly assess changes in national output to determine whether their society is progressing or regressing.
It is possible that an increase in output in the
formal sector is more than offset by a decline in
the informal sector, meaning that the real economy
is actually in recession, as opposed to the official increase in GDP growth. Similarly, when formal sector growth slows, it is
possible that the performance of the informal
sector is strong enough to push up the growth rate
of the real economy.
According to official figures, Nigeria's GDP grew by an average
2.5 percent between 1994-1998, largely reflecting
movements in the country's oil export earnings,
said to account for about 40 percent of the national output. But no one really knows how Nigeria's real economy
fared during this period of heightened corruption
and economic demoralisation. Many private sector
operators believe that the economy was in recession. In reality, we do not know the truth because a reliable measure
of Nigeria's real economy does not
exist.
The World Bank and IMF frequently produce GDP data showing that
nations that follow SAP prescriptions perform
better than those who do not, but these claims are
made without information on the output of the informal sector. GDP growth based on the building of new restaurants in
urban areas and destruction of indigenous
industries hardly amounts to progress.
By arguing that African economies are larger than official GDP statistics suggest, we are not denying the existence of severe
poverty in the continent. However, Africa's
poverty is so glaring that it does not need to be
overstated. To say that Nigeria's GDP per capita is $250 and Mozambique's is $80 as stated in official data is clearly
absurd. Given the unequal distribution of income,
where the richest 20 percent of the population
gulp half or more of the national income, official GDP per income would give an income for the majority of Africans on
which it would be impossible to survive. Anyone
visiting Nigeria will see evidence of intense
poverty, but they will not see millions of people dying of starvation.
To account for differences in the purchasing power of the dollar
in different countries, economic agencies publish
national income figures that have been adjusted
for purchasing power parity (PPP). This is a
method of measuring the relative purchasing power of different
countries' currencies in order to compare living
standards. Using PPP results in substantial
increases in the GNP per capita of African countries. For instance, according to World Bank date standard GNP per capita
and GNP per capita PPP adjusted for Nigeria was
$260 and $1,220 respectively in 1995 and $80 and
$810 respectively for Mozambique. On PPP basis, the US per capita income is 24 times Nigeria's, compared with 116 times
when standard GDP per capita is
used.
Though using PPP allows more accurate comparisons of standards of living across countries, it does not address the question of
the under accounting of national economies in
Africa and elsewhere in the developing world. It
could be argued that it makes no difference whether Britain's GDP per capita income is 78 times bigger than Nigeria's or 17
times larger when GDP is adjusted for PPP, or
perhaps only fives times larger when Nigeria's
informal sector and cultural output are incorporated into its national income. But it can make a difference.
Getting a more accurate picture of the size of African economies
will give us a better perspective on the challenge
facing African governments and development
agencies. The exaggeration of the wealth gap between Africa and the West has the effect of making the prospect of
Africans achieving a standard of living comparable
to what exist in the West seem almost impossible.
When faced with GDP data that suggest that their
nations are a century behind developed countries, Africans
understandably feel overwhelmed or defeated by the
enormity of the task of catching up, and some opt
for personal short-cuts to the higher living standards.
We may find that after the formal and informal sectors are
integrated into one measured real economy, and
financial value is ascribed to non-monetized
cultural output of the population, the actual size of African
economies are significantly larger than indicated
by current GDP data. Furthermore, if the cost of
industrial growth, such as environmental degradation, were deducted from the GDP figures of western economies, the
prosperity gap between developing and developed
nations will narrow further. The GDP of
industrialised nations could be discounted for waste of world
resources due to over-development, i.e., producing
beyond the needs of society.
When considering the material conditions of people in Africa, a distinction should be made between absolute poverty and
relative poverty. The former relates to the
absence of basic social facilities, such as access
to safe water, education, health services and reasonable nutrition. While the latter relates to the lack of access to living
standards that are available in modern
industrialised societies.
Though abject poverty is widespread in Africa, it does not
require decades or a century to eradicate it. With
political will and increased investment in human
development, within a generation it can be drastically reduced if not eliminated. The costs will be substantial, but
not beyond the means African countries. According
to the World Bank, in 1988 the estimated cost of
providing safe water supplies in Nigeria's rural and urban areas within 20 years was $4.3 billion. This was a
piffling amount compared with the more than $200
billion of public funds that has been stolen or
squandered on inessential projects since the 1970s, including more than $8 billion spend on a steel industry that has
produced little or no steel.
Rather than follow GDP statistics that tell us little about the
real economy, African governments should concern
themselves with the quality and structure of the
growth they pursue. We should focus on those aspects of human existence that define our poverty and ignore those
aspects of wealth in the west that are cultural.
Africans are not poor because they do not eat
beef-burgers, have private cars or attend beauty saloons. They are poor because they lack access to basic social utilities.
This requires channelling resources into human
development, especially improving the health,
education and skill levels of the people as well as expanding job opportunities.
In presenting Africa's poverty relative to the rich west, we should
be careful not to devalue the culture of African
people. By using GDP statistics which give little
or no recognition to the everyday toil and output
of ordinary Africans, both the friends and enemies of the continent present Africans as hapless, lazy and unproductive people.
Africa's poverty does not need to be overstated or
the output of its people ignored to make a case
for debt relief or aid for the continent.
Tunde
Obadina is director of Africa Business
Information Services